Wildfire Model
First Street Wildfire Model Export
The First Street Wildfire Model (FS-WFM) is a 30-meter resolution model representing the risk of wildfire to any specific location in the continental US. The risk of wildfire is derived from a series of inputs associated with fire fuels, weather, human influence, and fire movement. Bringing all of these inputs together, at a national scale, in a high-resolution model represents a first of its kind property-level wildfire risk model.
In the development of the model, there is extensive use of U.S. Federal Government open data as a basis for the necessary foundational topography, fuels, weather, climate, and historical disturbances information, additional data were added from a variety of state and local wildfire and land management sources to facilitate both a high resolution (30m horizontal) and future-facing (estimates both for today and for thirty years ahead) product that will allow individuals, communities, businesses, and governments to understand and prepare for their property-level wildfire risk in the face of a changing climate.
The Wildfire Model covers the contiguous United States. Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico are not part of the model.
Version 5.0
The fifth version of the First Street Wildfire Model (FS-WFM V5) incorporates several advances, including fuels updates, wildfire ignition location calculation advances, and an automated calibration approach that integrates the manual calibration by US Forest Service pyrome that were used in the FS-WFM V2. Details are documented in the methodology pages on https://firststreet.org/methodology/fire.
Properties do not appear in this table if they have no modeled exposure (Fire Factor = 1), are outside of the modeled area or have been excluded due to irregularities or artifacts.
Data Dictionary
In the burn_prob and ember_prob fields, values of 0 should be interpreted to mean that there is modeled risk, but it is less than the precision of the field.
Building Details and Scores
fsid
int
0
First Street ID (FSID) is a unique identifier assigned to each location
building_id
int
1
Building index, a zero-based counter for the buildings on the parcel. If null, statistics are based on the parcel centroid.
place_id
text
0
FS-assigned unique identifier for a building/parcel
firefactor
int
0
The property or building's Fire Factor, a score ranging from 1-10 (where 1 = minimal and 10 = extreme) based on wildfire exposure at the building footprint or parcel centroid. Based on the average of exposure in the current year and in thirty years in SSP 2-4.5
firefactor100_yYY
int
0
The property's Fire Factor, on a 100-point scale based on wildfire exposure at the building footprint or parcel centroid. Based on exposure in the given year.
combust_roof
int
1
Level of roof cover combustibility for this building (1: low, 2: mid, 3: high)
combust_construction
int
1
Level of combustibility of construction materials for this building (1: low, 2: mid, 3: high)
combust_dspace
int
1
Level of combustibility associated with defensible space (1: low, 3: high)
Exposure
burn_prob_yYY
float
0
The probability of wildfire reaching this property in the given year
burn_cumulative_yYY
float
0
The cumulative likelihood of wildfire reaching this property within the next YY years
flame_prob_f01_yYY
float
0
Conditional probability of flames with length up to 2 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the given year
flame_prob_f03_yYY
float
0
Conditional probability of flames with length 3-4 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the given year
flame_prob_f05_yYY
float
0
Conditional probability of flames with length 5-8 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the given year
flame_prob_f09_yYY
float
0
Conditional probability of flames with length 9-12 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the given year
flame_prob_f13_yYY
float
0
Conditional probability of flames with length 13-20 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the given year
flame_prob_f21_yYY
float
0
Conditional probability of flames with length 21 ft or more, given a wildfire occurring in the given year
ember_prob_yYY
float
0
Conditional probability of embers, given a wildfire occurring in the given year
Damages and Downtime
The "combust_prob", "destruction_prob", "destruction_cumulative" and "repair_days" columns will be null when the "damageable" column in the property export is 0 (false).
combust_prob_flame_yYY
float
1
Probability of building combustion by flames in the given year, given a modeled wildfire and based building characteristics
combust_prob_ember_yYY
float
1
Probability of building combustion by embers in the given year, given a modeled wildfire and based building characteristics
destruction_prob_yYY
float
1
The annual likelihood of wildfire destroying building by either flames or embers in the given years
destruction_cumulative_yYY
float
1
The cumulative likelihood of wildfire destroying building within the next given time frame (15, 30 or 75 years)
repair_days_flame_yYY
int
1
The estimated number of days to rebuild or repair the building by flames, if damaged in the average modeled wildfire in the given year
repair_days_ember_yYY
int
1
The estimated number of days to rebuild or repair the building by embers, if damaged in the average modeled wildfire in the given year
Last updated