Fire Model

First Street Fire Model Export

Introduction

The First Street Wildfire Model (FS-WFM) is a 30-meter resolution model representing the risk of wildfire to any specific location in the continental US. The risk of wildfire is derived from a series of inputs associated with fire fuels, weather, human influence, and fire movement. Bringing all of these inputs together, at a national scale, in a high-resolution model represents a first of its kind property-level wildfire risk model.

In the development of the model, there is extensive use of U.S. Federal Government open data as a basis for the necessary foundational topography, fuels, weather, climate, and historical disturbances information, additional data were added from a variety of state and local wildfire and land management sources to facilitate both a high resolution (30m horizontal) and future-facing (estimates both for today and for thirty years ahead) product that will allow individuals, communities, businesses, and governments to understand and prepare for their property-level wildfire risk in the face of a changing climate.

The Wildfire Model covers the contiguous United States. Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico are not part of the model.

Version 3.0

The third version of the First Street Wildfire Model (FS-WFM V3) incorporates several advances, including fuels updates, wildfire ignition location calculation advances, and an automated calibration approach that integrates the manual calibration by US Forest Service pyrome that were used in the FS-WFM V2. Details are documented in the methodology pages on https://firststreet.org/methodology/fire.

Directory Structure

The top-level directory includes an SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 folder and a README file. Within the SSP folders, there are state FIPS codes folders. These state folders contain CSV files for each county-equivalent in the modeled area, as well as a manifest file which counts the number of rows per CSV file.

Data Format

This directory contains a CSV file for each county-equivalent in the modeled area. Each file contains headers as a single row. Files are ASCII encoded with Unix-style LF line endings.

Data Dictionary

Properties do not appear in this table if they have no modeled exposure (Fire Factor = 1), are outside of the modeled area or have been excluded due to irregularities or artifacts.

In the "burn_prob", "flame_max" and "flame_mean", and "ember_prob" fields, values of 0 should be interpreted to mean that there is modeled risk, but it is less than the precision of the field. The "combust_prob", "destruction_prob", "destruction_cumulative" and "repair_days" columns will be null when the "damageable" column in the property export is 0 (false).

Column
Type
Nullable
Description

fsid

int

0

First Street ID (FSID) is a unique identifier assigned to each location

building_id

int

1

Building index, a zero-based counter for the buildings on the parcel. If null, statistics are based on the parcel centroid.

firefactor

int

0

The property's Fire Factor, a score ranging from 1-10 (where 1 = minimal and 10 = extreme) based on wildfire exposure at the building footprint or parcel centroid.

burn_prob_y00

float

0

The probability of wildfire reaching this property in the current year

burn_prob_y30

float

0

The probability of wildfire reaching this property in 30 years

burn_cumulative_y15

float

0

The cumulative likelihood of wildfire reaching this property within the next 15 years

burn_cumulative_y30

float

0

The cumulative likelihood of wildfire reaching this property within the next 30 years

flame_max_y00

int

0

Maximum modeled flame length (in feet) in the current year

flame_max_y30

int

0

Maximum modeled flame length (in feet) in 30 years

flame_mean_y00

int

0

Average modeled flame length (in feet) in the current year

flame_mean_y30

int

0

Average modeled flame length (in feet) in 30 years

flame_prob_f01_y00

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length up to 2 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the current year

flame_prob_f01_y30

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length up to 2 ft, given a wildfire occurring in 30 years

flame_prob_f03_y00

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 3-4 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the current year

flame_prob_f03_y30

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 3-4 ft, given a wildfire occurring in 30 years

flame_prob_f05_y00

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 5-8 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the current year

flame_prob_f05_y30

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 5-8 ft, given a wildfire occurring in 30 years

flame_prob_f09_y00

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 9-12 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the current year

flame_prob_f09_y30

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 9-12 ft, given a wildfire occurring in 30 years

flame_prob_f13_y00

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 13-20 ft, given a wildfire occurring in the current year

flame_prob_f13_y30

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 13-20 ft, given a wildfire occurring in 30 years

flame_prob_f21_y00

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 21 ft or more, given a wildfire occurring in the current year

flame_prob_f21_y30

float

0

Conditional probability of flames with length 21 ft or more, given a wildfire occurring in 30 years

ember_prob_y00

float

0

Conditional probability of embers, given a wildfire occurring in the current year

ember_prob_y30

float

0

Conditional probability of embers, given a wildfire occurring in 30 years

combust_prob_flame_y00

float

1

Probability of building combustion by flames in the current year, given a modeled wildfire and based building characteristics

combust_prob_flame_y30

float

1

Probability of building combustion by flames in 30 years, given a modeled wildfire and based building characteristics

combust_prob_ember_y00

float

1

Probability of building combustion by embers in the current year, given a modeled wildfire and based building characteristics

combust_prob_ember_y30

float

1

Probability of building combustion by embers in 30 years, given a modeled wildfire and based building characteristics

destruction_prob_y00

float

1

The annual likelihood of wildfire destroying building by either flames or embers in the current year

destruction_prob_y30

float

1

The annual likelihood of wildfire destroying building by either flames or embers in 30 years

destruction_cumulative_y15

float

1

The cumulative likelihood of wildfire destroying building within the next 15 years

destruction_cumulative_y30

float

1

The cumulative likelihood of wildfire destroying building within the next 30 years

repair_days_flame_y00

int

1

The estimated number of days to rebuild or repair the building by flames, if damaged in the average modeled wildfire in the current year

repair_days_flame_y30

int

1

The estimated number of days to rebuild or repair the building by flames, if damaged in the average modeled wildfire in 30 years

repair_days_ember_y00

int

1

The estimated number of days to rebuild or repair the building by embers, if damaged in the average modeled wildfire in the current year

repair_days_ember_y30

int

1

The estimated number of days to rebuild or repair the building by embers, if damaged in the average modeled wildfire in 30 years

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